Omicron cases surge, US supply chain crisis may continue until 2023

As the United States passes its peak consumer demand and the winter holidays are coming to an end, the next few months will be critical in determining whether the supply chain crisis caused by the epidemic will continue into 2023.

Aaron Terrazas, director of economic research at digital freight network Convoy Inc. , said congestion at ports has stabilized in recent weeks but is not necessarily better.

Terrazas noted that port operations don’t really look better, as throughput, the number of boxes moving from ships to trucks and warehouses, has remained essentially the same. The number of vessels at anchor has decreased, mainly because fewer ships are coming into the port.

Terrazas said that generally speaking, August to October is the peak period for port cargo transportation, while there will be a lull from November to February . If the port can digest the backlog of goods by early February , the supply chain situation in 2022 will be better. If the backlog of goods is not handled by mid-February , the supply chain crisis may continue into 2023.

And now the situation is getting dire. While the port crisis may ease as January approaches, Omicron has revived concerns about more economic disruptions in the weeks and months ahead.

According to the New York Times, in the past week ending on the 26th, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States increased by 48% compared with the previous week, and the average daily increase in cases over the past seven days reached 182,682.

As the Omicron strain spreads rapidly across the United States, the daily positive test rate for COVID-19 in the United States is now higher than during the peak of the Delta strain this summer. So far, Omicron strain infections account for nearly three-quarters of the newly confirmed cases in the United States, and in some areas of the East Coast, this figure is as high as 90%.

Even if Omicron doesn’t lead to higher hospitalizations or death risks, it still has the potential to be incredibly disruptive to the labor supply chain, Terrazas said. In more contagious cases, workers will have to stay home , which will affect warehouse and distribution center operations .

Omicron

US Supply Chain