Has the impact of the epidemic been amplified? American e-commerce has been developing steadily

According to Marketplace Pulse research, even if the global epidemic had not occurred, the e-commerce penetration rate in the United States could have reached its current level . It is true that the epidemic promoted the development of e-commerce in the United States in 2020 , but this acceleration is ultimately not a step change.

The lockdown caused by the epidemic has prompted a large number of users to turn to e-commerce and online groceries . In the second quarter of 2020 alone, online consumption in the United States increased by more than 40%, the fastest growth in decades. However, as offline retail recovers, the share of e-commerce in the US retail industry is declining.

E-commerce in the United States has been developing every year . The epidemic has caused it to develop rapidly in a short period of time , but as the epidemic situation improves , e-commerce has returned to the development trend of more than ten years .

According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, e-commerce accounted for 12.4% of total U.S. retail spending in the third quarter of 2021. If there had been no epidemic, based on the average growth rate over the past five years , the proportion is expected to be 12.6% this quarter .

However, consumers are spending more online than historical trends would predict . In the third quarter, U.S. e-commerce spending was $204 billion. Before the pandemic , this figure was expected to be $183 billion. At the same time, because offline retail spending also increased , e-commerce 's market share was almost the same as expected before the pandemic .

In the third quarter, Amazon reached sales levels that it would have achieved even without the pandemic , and Target continued to grow strongly, driven by services such as same-day delivery . Shopify is also growing , with the increasing number of merchants on the platform being one of the important driving forces .

At this moment, the epidemic is not over yet, and the disruption of the global supply chain has brought new challenges . Some economic theories believe that the growth of e-commerce penetration will look more like a J-shaped curve, with a period of recession followed by a period of gradual recovery, rising to a higher point than the starting point.

The United States is also expanding its infrastructure of ports, warehouses , aircraft , and transport vehicles . Amazon and other companies are also hiring additional workers to better prepare for the changes ahead. But the most likely outcome is that U.S. e- commerce will continue to grow at the average rate of 14-15% in the decade before the pandemic .

Amazon US

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