The epidemic, inflation, and supply chain disruptions caused the decline in US retail spending to exceed expectations

Americans' retail spending fell more than expected in July, with sales in many industries falling month-on-month.

According to the National Retail Federation ( NRF), U.S. retail sales in July fell 1.1% from June to $617.7 billion, but increased 9.5% compared with July 2020. Economists had expected retail sales to fall 0.2% month-on-month in July.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in July fell in all categories except electronics/appliances and health/personal care.

Among them, clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 2.6% month-on-month , but increased by 45.8% year-on-year; electronics and electrical appliances increased by 0.3% month-on-month and increased by 23.4% year-on-year; furniture and household goods decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, but increased by 15.6% year-on-year; sporting goods decreased by 1.9% month-on-month, but increased by 14.5% year-on-year; groceries decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, but increased by 12.4% year-on-year; health and personal care products increased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 8.4% year-on-year; building materials and gardening products decreased by 1.2% month-on-month, but increased by 5.3% year-on-year; sales of other categories decreased by 3.1% month-on-month, but increased by 3.7% year-on-year.

In the first half of this year, the epidemic eased slightly, and the US government introduced a series of bills to stimulate the economy and consumption (such as the "American Family Plan"), which drove spending increases. Consumer demand began to be released, and retail sales also hit a record high in April 2021.

But retail spending has since fallen as supply chain disruptions left businesses running low on inventory. Shortages of products from semiconductors to lumber have hurt companies’ ability to service Americans’ frenzied spending.

The imbalance in demand has also pushed inflation to its highest level since 2008, which has put more pressure on middle- and low-income families and led to the postponement of a large number of discretionary purchases. The spread of the Delta variant virus has also hit consumer confidence hard.

"The combination of waning U.S. consumer stimulus and the spread of the Delta variant has led to a decline in consumer spending and confidence," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "However, if the spread of Delta can be contained, the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter."

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