Will the “Delta” mutant virus threaten US back-to-school sales?

Fox Business says the delta variant of the coronavirus could curb back-to-school spending.

The National Retail Federation estimated in July that back-to-school spending would reach a record $108 billion as more students and families prepare for the new semester, and other organizations have previously given optimistic forecasts.

However, with the spread of the Delta variant virus, the United States has ushered in another wave of epidemic climax. Frieden, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that in the next 4-6 weeks, the daily increase in new COVID-19 cases in the United States may reach 200,000 again.

“While we are optimistic about improving macroeconomic conditions in 2021 as more people are vaccinated, the delta variant is concerning given its increased transmissibility and potential to hamper economic activity , ” said Katherine Cullen, senior director of industry and consumer insights at NRF .

The virus has become more contagious, and the number of cases is increasing at a faster rate. Moreover, children under the age of 12 in the United States cannot currently be vaccinated. Will this round of epidemic affect sales during the back-to-school season?

Judging from the current situation in various parts of the United States, although some companies (such as Amazon) have postponed the time to go to the office, most areas have not given up the plan to start school in the fall, but have strengthened protective measures, such as wearing masks indoors and outdoors during school, requiring employees to be vaccinated, conducting regular testing on students, and requiring social distance. Most schools still maintain the original start schedule.

Economist Michael Santo told CNBC that while the delta variant has "disrupted" some reopening plans, "big businesses and consumers have a lot of cash saved and ready to spend." "People are very excited about back-to-school shopping and hope that school can return to some degree of normalcy," Santo said .

According to a survey by NRF and Prosper, as of early August, consumers had already completed half (51%) of their shopping for the upcoming back-to-school season .

However, Santo said, "If the virus worsens, consumers may become more cautious, and the worst case scenario is the same as last summer."

Back to School Shopping Season

Epidemic in the United States

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