Indonesia's economy to grow 7% in second quarter as Ramadan approaches

With the arrival of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, many economists and businesses believe that Indonesia's economic situation in the second quarter of 2021 will be better than the previous quarter , and is expected to grow by 7% . In the first quarter of 2021, Indonesia's economy fell by 0.1%-1%.

David Sumual, chief economist at Bank BCA, predicted : " Indonesia 's economic growth in the second quarter will be better than in the first quarter, at least 5 % , so the government's forecast of 7% growth in the second quarter of this year is still reasonable . The number of new coronavirus cases is on a downward trend and the vaccination program is underway , so national confidence will soon recover. "

David Sumual said that people's spending on durable goods has not increased much at present , but with the incentives and support of a series of government policies, the automobile and real estate industries saw growth at the end of the first quarter of 2021. The growth of these two industries has driven the recovery of Indonesia's overall economy .

He said that Indonesia's current economic recovery is similar to that in 2009. In that year , industries such as food, industry, pharmaceuticals, education and information technology recovered one after another, and the manufacturing industry continued to grow. In addition, due to changes in people's shopping habits , the frequency of online shopping has also increased significantly .

On the other hand, he explained that during the Eid al-Fitr period, the Indonesian economy will grow significantly. Due to the social lockdown restrictions , population mobility has decreased and going out shopping is no longer the preferred shopping method . In order to prevent the decline in people's consumption level, the Indonesian government has implemented some measures.

Regarding the current economic growth, David Sumual said : " I am very shocked by the data that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Indonesia's economy will grow by 4.3% . But at the same time , this can also provide more reference for the government and enable the vaccination plan to be implemented faster . "

"If the government's plans on vaccination go well, then the IMF will probably reiterate its plans in September," said David Sumual.

Josua Pardede, an economist at B Permata Bank , said : " The vaccination program implemented in the second quarter boosted consumer demand. Although people's daily activities were affected by the outbreak , the economy is still growing. The government has implemented the government social assistance program (Bansos) , reduced luxury goods tax (PPnBM) , and relaxed loan down payment ratios (LTV) , which have stimulated the purchasing power of some segments of consumers . "

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