U.S. import growth levels off, but supply chain challenges remain

The U.S. holiday season is over, but supply chain challenges continue.

The Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation ( NRF) and Hackett Associates predicts that after a year of unprecedented growth, container imports at major U.S. ports will return to normal growth rates in 2022 , but import volumes will remain high .

“ The rate of growth we’ve seen in import containers has leveled off, but volumes remain elevated, ” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president of supply chain and customs policy. “There is still work to do to clear the container backlogs at ports and increase capacity throughout the supply chain. The Omicron variant is a wild card that will not only impact the labor force in the supply chain , but if consumers stay home, it will lead to more consumption and again drive more imports. ”

"Uncertain factors are likely to have an impact on future demand , " said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates . "We have seen a reduction in growth rates in the short term , and we think trade growth is returning to normal levels. We do not expect imports to continue to grow at double-digit rates in 2022."

In certain months of 2021, U.S. port import volumes increased by as much as 65% year-over-year , driven by increased consumer demand, retailer stockpiling of goods , and lower retail sales in early 2020 .

By the fall of 2021 , import growth returned to single-digit levels and should remain the same this year. Nevertheless, import container volumes are expected to remain close to historical highs for much of the first half of 2022 .

Data from the Global Port Tracking report shows that major U.S. ports handled 2.11 million TEUs in November, which is a 4.5% decrease from October but a 0.5% increase year-on-year. Although the December data is not yet available , the Global Port Tracking report estimates that December was 2.18 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%.

As a result, the total container handling volume at major ports in the United States in 2021 will reach 25.9 million TEUs, an increase of 17.9% from the historical high of 22 million TEUs set in 2020.

The Global Port Tracking Report predicts that major U.S. ports will handle 2.23 million TEUs in January , up 8.6% year-on-year; 1.95 million TEUs in February , up 4.2% year-on-year; 2.19 million TEUs in March, down 3.3%. April is expected to be 2.20 million TEUs, up 2.5%, and May is expected to be 2.32 million TEUs, down 0.5%.

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