Are the benefits brought to Amazon by the epidemic about to disappear?

According to Amazon's third-quarter financial report, Amazon's first-party online sales were $49.9 billion. Marketplace Pulse pointed out that if there had been no epidemic, Amazon's first-party online sales in the third quarter of this year would have been close to this figure. The high-growth dividend brought to Amazon by the epidemic is disappearing.

Image source: Marketplace Pulse

Marketplace Pulse said that from the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2020, Amazon's first-party online sales grew an average of 17.1% year-on-year. Assuming that Amazon's growth does not slow down and there is no epidemic , Amazon 's sales in the third quarter of 2021 will reach 47.8 billion US dollars , and the reported sales of 49.9 billion US dollars are only 4% higher than expected. In addition, Amazon 's third-party sales and overall GMV have similar growth as first -party online sales .

At this time last year, the pandemic seemed to lead to a huge change in consumer behavior , and e-commerce would be the biggest winner, which is indeed the case. But this year , Amazon 's sales data is not as high as expected .

Normally, Amazon 's Q4 sales are higher than Q3, Q3 sales are higher than Q2, and Q2 sales are higher than Q1. But so far this year, the quarterly growth rates of the three quarters have been basically flat. Due to the slowdown in e-commerce growth , Amazon even experienced negative quarterly growth in the third quarter for the first time in history .

In contrast, Jungle Scout's recent research report found that in 2021, Amazon's online sales will grow by 16%, while Walmart's e-commerce sales may increase by as much as 89% year-on-year , more than five times that of Amazon .

However, even so, Amazon's position in the US e-commerce market remains unshakable. According to a recent report by eMarketer, among the 15 companies with the highest market share in the United States, Amazon's market share (41%) exceeds the total of the other 14 companies (29.7%).

Image source: eMarketer

Amazon Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said: " In the two years since the outbreak , we are on track to double our logistics and delivery network." Due to the expansion of logistics infrastructure and high levels of inventory, especially when physical stores are out of stock, Amazon has the ability to continue to grow . But compared with the fourth quarter of 2020, Amazon's growth will slow down again.

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E-commerce

epidemic