Experts predict: 2022 US shopping season may arrive early

Rising prices could affect the 2022 Christmas shopping season in the United States as consumers try to save money where possible and cut back on gift spending .

Armando Roggio of PracticalEcommerce has made several annual forecasts for the holiday shopping season and its impact on retail and e-commerce since 2013 — except for last year ’s disruption due to the pandemic . Roggio ’s forecasts are usually made in September because of back-to -school sales and Halloween retail sales.

This year, Roggio made several predictions in advance :

1. U.S. retail sales growth will be lower than the inflation rate .

So far, the United States has experienced the worst inflation in more than 40 years .

In 1981, the annual inflation rate in the U.S. was 10.3% , according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the percentage change in the price of all consumer goods in a year based on the city average .

From 1981 to 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has recorded only eight years with inflation rates above 4%: 1981, 1982, 1984, 1988-1991 , and 2021. In the 30 years between 1991 and 2021, inflation rarely exceeded 2.5% .

So far in 2022, year-on-year inflation is running at over 8%.

This Christmas, Roggio expects overall U.S. retail sales to grow by about 3.5% to $1.3 billion. That would be below the annual U.S. inflation rate, which could end up being as high as 10%.

2. By Christmas, global inflation will exceed 6%.

Inflation will affect global retail sales.

In June 2022, the Pew Research Center studied inflation rates in 44 "advanced economies." The data showed that in 37 of them, "the average annual inflation rate in the first quarter of this year was at least twice that in the first quarter of 2020."

In Israel, inflation in the first quarter of 2022 was 25 times higher than in the first quarter of 2020. As of June 2022, Turkey’s inflation rate was 54.8%.

By December 25, global annual inflation will exceed 6%, putting downward pressure on the retail industry.

3. Sales on platforms such as Amazon will increase

During the 2022 Christmas shopping season, Amazon and similar online platforms will grow faster than overall e-commerce sales.

For the 2022 gift-giving season , Roggio predicts that inflation-induced price increases will prompt many shoppers to use Prime and other services to reduce shipping costs. Some people will buy many gifts at once from the same online seller or platform to reduce shipping costs again.

If overall e-commerce sales can grow by 15% during the peak season, the sales of e-commerce platforms will increase by about 17% compared to last year.

4. Holiday shopping may come early

We know that inflation pushes up prices . Buying gifts in December will be more expensive than in October.

This will drive two trends.

First, if holiday shoppers knew that annualized price increases would be 6% to 8% per month, they might start shopping earlier this year. June might be a good time to start buying Christmas gifts.

Second, the move means that key Christmas shopping days like Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday will likely account for a smaller portion of holiday retail sales .

5. Online shopping via mobile devices will grow by 20%

A report from market intelligence provider Sensor Tower noted that in the first five months of 2022, "installs of the top live shopping apps in the U.S. grew 77% year-over-year to 2.3 million." That doesn't include downloads of popular video apps like TikTok that have e-commerce features.

The authors anticipate that more holiday shoppers will purchase gifts via their mobile devices.

In 2022, total e-commerce sales from mobile devices in the United States will reach 115 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 20% from 2021.

Given that consumers are likely to make gift purchases in advance, this trend may prompt e-commerce sellers to plan ahead .

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