Sellers, please note! A new growth node for the US market has been identified

Recently, Goldman Sachs analysts released the latest research on the US market. Data shows that the new growth node of the US market has been determined, just after Christmas this year.

After a year of negative growth, American households' cash flow will see accelerated growth after Christmas.

The accelerated growth of cash flow of American households will further boost consumption and reverse the downward trend of economic development, which is undoubtedly good news for major retailers and sellers.

Goldman Sachs analyst Jason English said the biggest driver of improved cash flow will be wages.

Although consumers have shown strong resilience during this year's slowing U.S. economic growth, major retailers have been affected to some extent.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. retail sales grew by about 10% in 2021 , but the main driver of the increase was the soaring prices of gasoline and other daily necessities. Among them, car sales only increased by 1.5%, far below the inflation rate. In the first half of this year, consumer spending grew by only 1.5%, far lower than 12% in the same period last year.

In the first quarter of this year, consumers' discretionary cash decreased by 10% compared with the same period last year. According to Goldman Sachs research data, the decline in consumer discretionary cash will narrow to 2.7% this quarter, and will fall to 1.2% during the holiday season, and then gradually return to last year's normal level.

Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that U.S. consumers’ discretionary cash will grow steadily next year, with cash flow growing 2% in the first quarter and rising to more than 6% in the second half of 2023, totaling about $600 billion.

Arun Sundaram, an analyst at CFRA Research, said that the growth in consumer income is good news for the U.S. economy, but it may not benefit all companies equally, and he expects that the growth in consumer income will help large retailers the most. Large retailers like Amazon, Walmart and Target will benefit the most from this cash flow growth.

This year's sluggish market environment may prevent small and medium-sized retail enterprises from entering the capital market. Even if conditions improve, these small and medium-sized retail enterprises will still face a huge crisis of survival and development.

Similarly, sellers currently operating in the US market are also facing many challenges. Before the market inflection point comes, sellers can focus on their own products, improve user experience, and increase promotion efforts to attract consumers to place orders.

US Market

Growth Node