31,000 flights canceled! Is the US air cargo capacity in crisis?

According to Cirium data, American Airlines (AAL.US) will drastically cut its November flight schedule, cutting 16% of its total flights in November, nearly 31,000 flights, marking a significant reduction in overall capacity. The largest reductions are in flights between Chicago O'Hare and Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, and between Boston and Philadelphia International Airport.

In fact, since April this year, the flight plans of American airlines in November have been on a downward trend. Originally, about 195,700 flights were planned in November. By late July, the number had dropped to less than 185,000. Now, after cutting 31,000 flights, the number has dropped again to 154,000. Data shows that from January to July this year, American airlines canceled nearly 129,000 flights, an increase of 11% over the reduction before the epidemic.

In addition to adjusting flights in November, American Airlines will cut 2% of its flights in September and October, but the reduction is relatively small, according to foreign media reports. American Airlines called these changes "proactive adjustments" to adjust the size of the airline according to existing resources and build additional buffers for the remainder of its summer schedule. It is expected that capacity will drop by 8% to 10% this quarter compared to before the epidemic.

It is reported that American Airlines is not the only one to reduce its flights. Delta Air Lines reduced its schedule for the month by nearly 4,400 flights, or 3.3%; United Airlines also recently cut flights in Newark, New Jersey, cutting about 500 services, less than 1% of the plan; ultra-low-cost airline Frontier cut 90 services, also less than 1%.

It is understood that staff shortages are the key factor behind this trend of cuts, not only pilots and flight attendants are short, but also airport and air traffic control personnel are short. In addition, there are technical failures, employee strikes, bad weather and other factors.

In order to avoid any operational disruptions, these airlines are constantly adjusting their flight plans. However, cross-border sellers do not have to worry about freight issues, because according to Cirium data, the number of narrow-body freighter flights has tripled since the outbreak, and the number of wide-body freighter flights has increased by 60%. During the epidemic, airlines hope to use freight demand to generate revenue. The daily utilization rate of freighters rose by 15%-25% at the beginning of the epidemic, and it is still high now, and there is no sign of slowing down.

In addition, the demand for freight has also driven an increase in the delivery of full freighters and a record-breaking number of passenger-to-freighter conversions, with 15-20 aircraft converted per month, and the number of conversion slots has been waiting for two years or even longer. As more and more freighters are on the market, the intensified competition may lead to a reduction in rental rates, which is good news for sellers.

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