Americans want to spend more than $2 trillion in savings, and e-commerce share will continue to decline

One of the world’s largest commercial real estate services firms predicts that by September, herd immunity will be achieved after widespread vaccination, the e-commerce/retail mix is ​​leveling off, and Americans are eager to get out and spend their $2 trillion in excess savings .

Cushman & Wakefield's recent US Retail Overview noted that stimulus spending boosted after-tax income by double digits, the strongest revenue growth ever recorded.

In the third quarter of 2020, U.S. household wealth reached a record high of $116.5 trillion, and middle- and high-income consumers were ready to go out and spend heavily in shopping malls, cinemas, restaurants and entertainment centers.

Cushman believes consumers will resume spending at the 3.7% annual rate seen before the outbreak , but the report says they will go on a physical spending spree closer to September once herd immunity is declared.

More importantly, retailers will be able to quickly adjust to stable and negotiable purchasing behavior. Cushman expects e-commerce to fall back to 20% market share by 2021. In 2020, e-commerce market share rose to a record high of around 23%, but when people began to flock to stores without masks again, e-commerce market share will fall sharply.

In an era when industrial warehouse space is expensive and hard to find, traditional brick-and-mortar businesses continue to dominate e-commerce sales and will continue to utilize retail space to fulfill online orders.

In 2019, brick-and-mortar brands generated $5.8 trillion in online sales, or 83% of total sales. Cushman expects that share to reach 78% by 2025 .

Cushman predicts that retail vacancy rates, which have already hit a high of 12%, will continue to fall back to a high of 10% over the next four years as established retailers expand. This goal will be achieved soon, as retail rents in the 60 largest U.S. markets have fallen from 5% to 10%.

Cushman & Wakefield operates in 60 countries and had revenue of nearly $8 billion last year.

USA

Savings

E-commerce share