The number of blank air tickets has increased significantly, and the exchange rate of transatlantic routes is about to soar

The Baltic Freight Index (FBX) on Friday showed a 40-foot container on a direct transatlantic route from northern Europe to the east coast of North America at $2,026, the same as last April and down from a low of $1,622 in September.

The exchange rate is about to soar as the number of empty flights increases

Spot container rates on direct transatlantic routes from northern Europe to the east coast of North America have returned to pre-pandemic levels, but one analyst said the lull could soon end as carriers focus on maximizing returns on parts of their networks that have been performing relatively poorly .

Niels Madsen, vice president of product and operations at SeaIntelligence, said that in contrast to the unprecedented increase in spot rates on the Asia-Europe , transpacific routes and most other routes from Asia , the transatlantic trade lanes have remained stable throughout the pandemic .

eeSea's liner database shows that blank sailings on this route began to increase in May . Starting in July, airlines blanked 8 to 10 sailings per month, eventually reaching 11 in December. And this trend continued in the first two months of this year, with 10 sailings out of 74 in January and 4 sailings out of 64 in February .

Niels Madsen warned that the sharp increase in the number of blank sailings on this route may "foreshadow an upcoming rate increase". It is reported that the blank sailings on the transatlantic route are completely different from other deep-sea voyages. Last year , there was only one peak in its H1 blank sailings .

SeaIntelligence said that by the end of 2020, the number of blank sailings on this route had increased significantly , in stark contrast to the transpacific and Asia-Europe routes. In addition, the level of blank sailings announced in March and April has also been at a continuously increasing level compared with the same period last year .

U.S. ports are severely congested and supply chains are disrupted

It is reported that the total shipping capacity in February was 592,000 TEUs , the lowest level in more than a year . Although eeSea's record this month shows that the capacity will increase to 699,000 TEUs, it is still not high. Relevant sources revealed that this may be related to the weak demand since February.

But Madsen said the significant increase in transatlantic blank sailings may have less to do with weak demand and more to do with carriers rushing to find ship tonnage to make up for chronic port congestion on the U.S. West Coast , where an average of 30 ships a day are reported to be idle at anchor in San Pedro Bay.

Since the outbreak began last year, major ports in the United States have been paralyzed and ships have been congested. It is reported that in some ports, the average berth time of ships that exchange 6,000 or more boxes at berth every day has increased by 20% to more than 83 hours.

The situation in Los Angeles and Long Beach is even more serious. In the fourth quarter of last year , the average port time for ships increased from 112 hours in the third quarter to more than 170 hours , with a workload of more than 6,000 times.

“The restrictions imposed by Covid-19 led to a significant increase in port delays last year, costing cargo owners and vessel and terminal operators time and money, and significantly disrupting supply chains,” said Turloch Mooney, associate director at IHS Markit.

The editor here reminds relevant sellers to pay more attention to logistics route issues and make timely adjustments to avoid unnecessary losses.

route

Transatlantic

exchange rate